000
FXUS61 KGYX 091939
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...DESPITE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE CYCLONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...MAIN DYNAMICS/LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART SOUTH OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. WITH
CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BY THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MOISTENING
THIS EVENING ALONG THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE COASTAL
PLAIN. SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT THE
RAIN/NO RAIN LINE WILL BE VERY DISTINCT WITH THIS EVENT. AWAY FROM
THE COAST CIRRUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...THE
COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. IT WILL HOWEVER BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH (AND ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER GUSTS) COMMON
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FARTHER INLAND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY AFTERNOON
AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE 60S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A
SERIES OF STRONG STORM CENTERS TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. 
THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE ECMWF/GLOBAL/GFS ENSEMBLE IS PREFERRED TO
THE STRAIGHT GFS OUTPUT AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THIS COMPROMISE
STILL PUTS THE AREA ONLY ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. A RIDGE BRINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WITH
REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THIS SYSTEM THEN
MEANDERS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING KICKED
OUT TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS
SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS HUGGING THE NH AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ME COAST
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST THROUGH 00 UTC...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ELSEWHERE VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR EXPECTED...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AT KPSM AND KPWM...LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OFFSHORE. 
&&

.MARINE...
AS SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET
ISLAND THIS EVENING...NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ANZ154 BEGINNING AT 03 UTC...THE REMAINING MARINE AREAS WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT BEGINNING AT 06 UTC AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WINDS WILL APPROACH
GALE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW CENTER TRACKS TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. A FLAG FOR SEAS IS ALSO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ150>153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT 
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$